🛢️ War, Oil, and Your FBA Carton: Why You Should Care About the Israel–Iran Escalation

Amazon, Walmart, Shopify, not what this week's about.

Last weekish, Israel reportedly struck inside Iran, aiming at nuclear infrastructure — a move that could shift the entire geopolitical axis of the Middle East.

If you’re thinking, “Okay Charles, and?” — you’re missing the play. Because whether you sell bath mats, garlic presses, or do eight figures in office furniture, this matters. And it matters now.

⚠️ Let’s Talk Hormuz

20% of the world’s oil moves through the Strait of Hormuz. It's a literal choke point. A bottleneck with a track record. And it’s sitting on a geopolitical fault line.

If Iran were to close the Strait (which, to be clear, most experts say they won’t unless the U.S. escalates), the global oil market doesn’t just hiccup — it convulses.

But even without a full closure, the fear of conflict is already rerouting ships and spiking shipping insurance premiums. Tanker rates from the Persian Gulf to Asia jumped 24% after Israel’s strike. Not “if.” Already.

Let’s be real: most of us aren’t importing barrels of crude.

But you are importing something. And the ships that carry your containers share ocean lanes with the ones carrying oil. When one gets disrupted, everyone pays.

⛴️ Remember the Red Sea?

That shipping nightmare from earlier this year? The Houthi rebels targeting container ships? That hasn’t gone away. If anything, it’s heating up again — fueled by Iran’s proxy network and emboldened by the broader war climate.

We saw what that did:

• 12+ day delays
• $15,000 container costs
• Product launches stalled
• Cash flow frozen

Now imagine adding Strait of Hormuz instability to the mix.

🧠 Why This Isn’t Just Political Theater

This isn’t about picking sides. This isn’t about foreign policy.

This is about recognizing that every war is a supply chain war now.

• If oil spikes, everything gets more expensive.
• If Hormuz closes, fuel surcharges hit your shipping invoices — hard.
• If Red Sea traffic collapses, lead times stretch and stockouts come next.
• If inflation ticks up again from this, Fed rates stay high, and your capital gets tighter.

Whether you’re an Amazon seller, a DTC operator, or just a business owner who depends on logistics — this touches you.

👀 What I’m Watching Closely

• Lead times: I’m not adding buffer, yet, but ready to. Always.
• Freight rates: Watching for Q3 spikes. If you’ve got space to bring forward shipments, you may want to.
• Container lanes: East Coast routes are becoming more attractive again.
• Cash cushions: If you’re still skating on Q4 optimism, now is the time to re-stabilize.

If Iran escalates further, or if the U.S. gets directly involved — we’re not talking about just “disruption.” We’re talking economic whiplash.

💬 Final Take

You don’t need to be watching CNN. You need to be reading the tide charts.

Because geopolitical events like this don’t wait for Shopify dashboards or Amazon restock tools to catch up. By the time most sellers feel the effects, the impact is already baked in.

Stay aware. Stay sharp. Stay liquid.

— Charles